The French real estate market in 2024 has produced contradictory signals according to the selected indicators. Prices declining, transaction volumes at their lowest in a decade, fluctuating credit rates, new construction stalled: each data point tells a different part of the same year. This article measures the gaps between these indicators to identify what has really changed in the real estate news in 2024.
Real estate prices, transactions, and credit rates in 2024: comparative table
The three variables that structure the market – price per square meter, sales volume, and cost of credit – have not evolved at the same pace or in the same direction over the year.
| Indicator | 2023 Trend | 2024 Trend | Notable Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average prices (existing) | Beginning of decline | Decrease of about 5% in national average | Uneven decline across regions |
| Transaction volume | About 950,000 sales (-15% year-on-year) | Prolonged low until mid-2024, localized rebound at the end of the year | Visible recovery in Île-de-France at the end of 2024 |
| Interest rates | Nearly quadrupling in 18 months | Beginning of easing linked to the decrease in ECB key rates | Inflation returning around 1.6% over 12 months |
| New construction | Collapse of building permits | Continued contraction | New supply deficit worsening rental tension |
This table shows a temporal shift: prices continued to decline while credit conditions began to ease. The transaction volume only reacted at the very end of the year, and only in certain areas.
To track these developments month by month, the real estate information on Immobserver compiles key data from the sector at both national and regional levels.
Correction of real estate prices in 2024: regional disparities to analyze
The average decline of around 5% in existing properties masks very different realities from one territory to another. Paris and major metropolitan areas began their correction earlier than medium-sized cities, where prices had resisted more in 2023.
Several factors explain this heterogeneity:
- The price level reached before the correction: the most expensive markets (Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux) faced stronger selling pressure, as buyers lost purchasing power due to rising rates.
- The share of second homes in certain coastal or mountain areas, where foreign demand and life annuities played a partial supporting role for prices.
- Local economic attractiveness: dynamic employment areas have resisted better than territories in demographic decline.
Notary data confirms that purchasing power has evolved differently according to buyer profiles and geographic areas. A first-time buyer in Île-de-France did not experience the same year as an investor in a medium-sized city in the south.
New construction stalled: the invisible factor of the 2024 market
Annual reports focus on prices and rates. However, the collapse of new construction, which began in 2023, has direct consequences on the entire market in 2024 and beyond.
The contraction of building permits mechanically reduces the available supply in the medium term. Fewer new homes mean increased pressure on the existing housing stock and the rental market, which is already under strain in major urban areas.
This new supply deficit adds to the regulatory constraints related to energy renovation. Homes classified F and G in the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) are subject to gradual rental bans. The rental stock is thus compressed from both sides: fewer new constructions to absorb demand, and energy-inefficient homes removed from the market without being fully renovated.
Significant increase in evictions
A rarely mentioned indicator in real estate reports sheds light on the deterioration of housing conditions. According to Le Monde, citing data from the Ministry of Housing, an unprecedented number of households were forcibly evicted in 2024. This data concretely reflects the effects of the housing crisis on the most vulnerable tenants.
The rise in rents in tight areas, combined with stagnant incomes for some households, has fueled this increase in unpaid rents and eviction proceedings.
Mortgage rates and outlook for late 2024: the ECB signal
The European Central Bank has begun to lower its key rates, in a context of inflation returning around 1.6% over twelve months. This shift has started to impact the mortgage rates offered by French banks at the end of the year.
The Paris Region Institute has documented a precise timeline of the market in Île-de-France: low transaction volumes between 2023 and mid-2024, then rebound in volumes in Île-de-France starting at the end of 2024. This localized restart suggests that the easing of credit has primarily benefited the most liquid markets.
For buyers, the window at the end of 2024 combined two rarely simultaneous advantages: prices still in correction and rates beginning to decline. This conjunction does not guarantee its continuation, as the increase in volumes historically tends to slow the decline in prices.
Energy renovation and DPE: new constraints for property owners
The year 2024 was also marked by the strengthening of obligations related to the energy performance of homes. Landlords of energy-inefficient homes face a regulatory timeline that progressively restricts their ability to rent.
This regulatory pressure creates two parallel dynamics in the market:
- A visible discount on poorly rated properties in the DPE, which some buyers target to purchase at a reduced price and renovate.
- A withdrawal of rental supply in areas where the cost of renovation exceeds the expected profitability, worsening the shortage of available housing.
The DPE has become a full-fledged negotiation criterion during transactions. A property rated F or G sells at a significant discount compared to an equivalent property with a better rating, and this trend has intensified throughout 2024.
The French real estate market in 2024 did not deliver a single trend. The decline in prices, the low transaction volumes, the nascent easing of credit, and the crisis in new construction form a picture where each indicator evolves at its own pace. The rebound observed in Île-de-France at the end of 2024 remains to be confirmed across the entire territory, and the deficit of new housing will weigh on supply well beyond this single year.